Yellen: Another $1,200,000,000,000 in US bank failures this year (about 1 outta 5 US banks)
US Bank Run Accelerated Last Week..... Now In It's 6th Week (official figures lag by a week, this past week saw more Americans running faster to get their cash outta US banks).
How’s your bank? Loaded up with commercial real estate loans to half empty office towers? Loaded up wi ‘resi’ real estate mortgaged at 2.99% (vs. the 5.49% interest non-bank money markets now own…….. loaded up with Silicon Valley tech scams?
Your bank put you under a magnifying glass before allowing you to give tem money. When are you going to put your bank and your bankers under a magnifying glass to see how they blew that money ……….. we’ve all seen enough news reports about JPM and Epstein’s Pedo Island of Rape to have a clue what JP Morgan Chase have been up to.
What else, multi-million dollar mortgages in default on empty office buildings, homeowners laughing all the way to their crypto e wallets or their gold vaults (or counting the cash in their mattresses yet again…..) marvelling at their 2.99% mortgages, late model car owners laughing all the way to - wherever - with their 4.99% car loans……… silicon valley grifters announcing yet another year of colossal financial losses on their scams…… with the money your bank “lent” them?
US Deposit Outflows Accelerated Last Week, Led By Small Banks
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, MAY 19, 2023 - 04:43 PM
After yesterday's continuing surge on flows INTO money market funds and increase in the use of The Fed's bank bailout facilities, expectations were for more deposit outflows from US commercial banks (despite Western Alliance's comments which sparked a melt-up in regional bank shares this week.
However, Treasury Secretary Yellen spoiled the party somewhat today by warning (reportedly) that the market should expect 'more bank mergers' (i.e. failures)...
And so, according to the latest H8 report from The Fed, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US Commercial Bank deposits fell by $26.4 billion during the week ended 5/10 - the third straight week...
Source: Bloomberg
On a seasonally adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) decreased $20.8bn last week (during the week-ending 5/10), for the fifth straight weekly outflow. That is the lowest since March 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) dropped $50.26 billion (after jumping $63.8 billion) the prior week.
And judging by yesterday's money market inflows, the deposit outflows continued this week (remember, deposit data is lagged a week to money market and Fed balance sheet data), despite reassurances from WAL...
Source: Bloomberg
On a seasonally-adjusted basis (ex large time deposits), Large, Small, and Foreign banks all saw outflows last week. Small bank deposits are at their lowest since May 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
This is the 5th straight week of Small Bank outflows and Small Banks saw the largest outflows...
Large Banks -$7.49 billion SA (-$36.5 billion NSA)
Small Banks -$8.742 billion SA (-$12.5 billion NSA)
Foreign Banks -$4.627 billion SA (-$1.2 billion NSA)
Source: Bloomberg
Including large time deposits, the breakdown is as follows:
Large banks -$21.6BN
Small banks -$2.7BN
Foreign Banks -$2.1BN
Jim Bianco points out an interesting fact in today's data - 'large time deposits' saw their first outflow since last October...not a good sign as Jim points out
2/4
The twist this week is large time deposits, aka Jumbo CDs, also saw an OUTFLOW this week.
The first such outflow since last October.
This is how banks competed with money market accounts, and even this reversed.
Ok, it is only one week, but it is surprising, nevertheless pic.twitter.com/LuFrWuQsyJ— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) May 19, 2023
Finally, after adjusting for all the revisions (which are now an every week occurrence), what sticks out to us is that the last 5 weeks have seen $379 billion in NSA bank outflows, while SA the number is an outflow of only $171 billion.
Source: Bloomberg
So The Fed is claiming there are still over $200 billion in tax-payment related deposits expected to return to banks.
Source: Bloomberg
The seasonal adjustment of deposit runs will be the next big scandal.
According to the Fed, since the Tax Date there have been $45.4BN in outflows (last 4 weeks) while NSA deposit outflows are $268.5BN, this is a $220BN delta not explained by normal seasonality. pic.twitter.com/3v0FgfmAWl— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 19, 2023
The Fed’s report showed residential real estate loans declined a seasonally adjusted $2.6 billion, while lending for commercial properties rose slightly. Consumer loans also ticked up from the prior week, while commercial and industrial loans fell $3.5 billion.
On the other side of the ledger, Commercial bank lending was little changed in the week ended May 10th, according to seasonally adjusted data. Large bank loans dropped $6.159 billion while Small Bank loans actually rose by $6.85 billion (despite significant deposit outflows)...
Source: Bloomberg
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-deposit-outflows-accelerated-last-week-led-small-banks
Maybe there are some really rich really stupid foreigners who want to deposit a few trillion dollars worth of money in US banks? Not!
Although the 40,000,000 or so immigrants coming each decade, mostly from Haiti, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and parts of Africa, aren’t bringing trillions or even billions in cash with them, that is enough people for the US to industrialize and to once again become a First World industrialized nation (the USA de-industrialized in the 1980’s for those old enough to remember).
Note, I’d get worried, extremely worried when immigrants stop coming into the USA……… and when - hide the facts as Uncle Sam tries to do - we all finally figure out that way more than 1,000,000 born-in-the-USA Americans leave each year. For good.
Anyway, got a better solution?
Should Uncle Sam try to grift, I mean mooch, more money from more sugar daddies instead? Uncle Sam’s combined debts and “liabilities” (like FERS) is only about $100 trillion from 2023-2033, while Uncle Sam will only take in about $45 trillion (taxes & tariffs) from 2023-2033. The other $55 trillion owed, are there even that many sugar daddies on earth for Uncle Sam to try to grift that much from, I mean try to mooch that much from.
Comment below.