Hurricane Helene Set To Become Biggest Storm Of The Year
Hurricane Helene Set To Become Biggest Storm Of The Year
Forecast to hit Florida Gulf Coast / Panhandle on Thursday, storm surges up to 15 feet
Helene to become major hurricane in Gulf of Mexico, strike US
People in the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the central and eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for major hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive by Thursday.
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep 23, 2024 12:17 PM ART | Updated Sep 24, 2024 1:40 PM ART
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People filled up on gas and groceries in the Florida Panhandle on Sept. 23 as the then tropical rainstorm continued building intensity in the northwest Caribbean.
Key takeaways:
•A major hurricane is poised to make a quick landfall in the United States Thursday
•Time is running out to prepare for Helene's arrival
•This will be "a large storm with life-threatening impacts" hundreds of miles away from where it makes landfall
A major hurricane is approaching the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that communities along the central and eastern Gulf coast only have a couple of days to prepare for the fast-brewing, quick-moving Helene's arrival, which can potentially bring life-threatening storm surge and flooding rainfall, and destructive winds.
The western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico has been an area highlighted by AccuWeather meteorologists as a hot spot for tropical activity since the middle of September.
Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency in advance of the brewing storm. Officials have issued a mandatory evacuation order for the barrier islands in Franklin County, Florida, which is located in the Big Bend area of the panhandle. A hurricane watch is in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay. A tropical storm watch is in effect for much of the balance of the Florida Gulf coast, including the Keys.
Showers and thunderstorms quickly gathered over the weekend in the western Caribbean and adjacent land areas in Central America this past weekend. Localized flash flooding and mudslides will occur in areas surrounding the western Caribbean from Cuba to southeastern Mexico, Belize and Honduras.
This image of the western Caribbean Sea was captured on Tuesday morning, Sept. 24, 2024, shows showers and thunderstorms shortly before organizing into Tropical Storm Helene. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
AccuWeather began designating the brewing system as a tropical rainstorm this past weekend to raise public awareness and issue its own track map to help people and officials plan ahead. On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9.
Helene is currently packing 45-mph sustained winds with higher gusts.
Justifying the upcoming storm's strengthening
"The combination of deep warm water (ocean heat content) and low disruptive breezes (wind shear), should assist in rapid strengthening when Helene moves over the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday to Thursday," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"Most likely, Helene will create its own environment and bring a surge in moisture to the currently dry air over the Gulf," Rayno added. That moistening process was becoming evident in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify, with maximum sustained winds increasing by at least 35 mph or more in less than 24 hours.
What do AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate?
AccuWeather is expecting Helene to make landfall as a major hurricane of Category 3 strength (sustained winds of 111-129 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. However, it could reach Category 4 status (130-156 mph) at some point while it is over the Gulf of Mexico.
At this time, Helene's eye is most likely to track onshore along the Gulf Coast from the eastern tip of Louisiana to the central part of the Florida Peninsula. This landfall window will narrow once a strong storm center forms and begins to move along.
The highest landfall probability at this time is somewhere along the coast of the Florida Panhandle--perhaps in the Big Bend area--late Thursday. A possible track in farther to the southwest, over the Florida Peninsula, could mean an earlier landfall Thursday.
However, people should not just focus on where Helene's eye could make landfall. The storm will grow significantly in size with impacts that reach well out from the eye, especially on the eastern flank prior to landfall and for a time shortly thereafter.
"This can be a large hurricane with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall – be sure to know the risks you can face in your community," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
There is a significant risk to lives and property with the upcoming hurricane in the U.S.
Tropical Storm Helene, which will soon become a major hurricane, is initially rated as a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. This scale incorporates much more than the Saffir-Simpson scale, which is based on wind intensity alone.
The RealImpact scale weighs in storm surge, flooding rain, economic loss and population affected in addition to damaging wind gusts and tornadoes produced by a tropical system. It is possible the RealImpact may be pushed higher.
A storm surge of 15-20 feet is anticipated near and just east of where the eye rolls ashore. At this time, the level of storm surge is most likely in the Big Bend area of Florida. However, a significant storm surge of 6 to perhaps 10 feet will occur through the Tampa area and perhaps as far to the west as Panama City, Florida, depending on the hurricane track.
Due to strengthening winds from the southeast that will be perpendicular to the beaches, a storm surge of up to a few feet is also anticipated along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Charleston, South Carolina, which is hundreds of miles to the northeast of where Helene will make landfall along the Gulf Coast, could face some inundation.
Wind gusts frequenting 100-140 mph are forecast near and just to the east of where Helene lands, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 160 mph.
Strong, damaging winds will reach well northeast of Helene's center as it moves inland. This includes much of Georgia and South Carolina. Travel could become dangerous from later Thursday to Saturday well inland due to the risk of flooding from torrential rain, falling trees from high winds and possibly even a few tornadoes.
Widespread power outages are anticipated near north and east of where the eye makes landfall.
Near where Helene makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is forecast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 24 inches. A pocket of 8-12 inches of rain is also likely in the southern Appalachians and Piedmont.
Impacts from flooding rain to persist well after landfall
Even as the storm loses wind intensity after moving well inland, the likelihood of heavy rain will continue. Typically in the hours and days after landfall, the heaviest rain shifts to the north and west of the storm center.
"There is the risk for major flooding in parts of the Southeast late Thursday into Friday, including the Atlanta area as well as the steep terrain of the southern Appalachians, where the flooding risk can be especially elevated as well as the risk for mudslides and rockslides," Porter said.
Some of the heaviest rainfall hundreds of miles from the Gulf Coast may steer across the Tennessee, lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys. Flooding along some of the secondary rivers is possible, but a moderate rise on the Ohio and Mississippi rivers would be welcomed by tug and barge operations that cost-effectively transport goods. Low water levels for the third year in a row have been restricting these operations.
Heavy rain may fall as far to the west as part of the Ozark Mountains in Missouri and Arkansas late this week.
Even if Helene, as a tropical rainstorm steers northwestward for a time after landfall, a zone of heavy rain will break out farther to the east as a plume of moisture streams in from the Atlantic along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Prior to the upcoming major hurricane strike, the strongest storm to make landfall in the U.S. was Francine as a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Francine struck the Louisiana coast during the late afternoon hours of Sept. 11.
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