Former US general says he is 'even more concerned' about Putin using nukes...
...As Ukraine makes astonishing progress in its counteroffensive
Former US general says he is 'even more concerned' about Putin using nukes as Ukraine makes astonishing progress in its counteroffensive
Sep 13, 2022, 4:40 PM
Western officials and experts have said Putin may use nukes in Ukraine if he gets desperate enough.
Ukraine is in the middle of a blistering counteroffensive — rapidly recapturing territory.
Retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan told Insider he's now "even more concerned" about nuclear-weapon use.
Over the course of the nearly seven-month war in Ukraine, Western officials and Russia experts have consistently expressed concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin may resort to using nuclear weapons if he gets desperate enough.
Retired US Army Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, a former defense attaché to Russia and senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said he's now even more worried about the potential for Putin to tap into Russia's sizable nuclear arsenal because of Ukraine's rapid regaining of territory in a lightning counteroffensive that began less than a month ago.
"I have been thinking about the pressure Putin must be feeling to do something dramatic — which causes me to think again about nuclear triggers," Ryan told Insider.
Ryan said that if the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk asked for accession into Russia and were accepted, it would mean "the fighting that is currently going on in Ukraine will suddenly be 'in Russia.'"
After failing to take Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, in the early days of the war, Russia shifted its focus to Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, which is made up of Donetsk and Luhansk. Much of the fighting in the war has been in the Donbas.
The Biden administration has said Russia may attempt to annex Donetsk and Luhansk via "sham referenda." If that happened, there could be immediate ramifications, Ryan said.
"For one, Putin could solve his military-manpower problem because now all the conscripts (35+% of the force) can be used — since it's no longer a war abroad," he said.
"A second development will be that the red lines against fighting on Russian territory will be suddenly crossed," he added. "NATO weapons will be fighting and shooting inside Russia. And most importantly, the Russian state will be under direct attack. And as we know, that is a trigger for using nuclear weapons."
Ryan, who warned as early as March of the potential for Putin to use a "small nuclear weapon," or tactical nuke, in Ukraine, said he's "even more concerned about the possibility of nuclear weapons being used now" than he was earlier.
"If we add the possibility that Russian forces might be losing hard-won territory to Ukrainian forces at the same time, the pressure on Putin to do something dramatic will be enormous," Ryan added.
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